THE NEW YORK
TIMES
April
17, 2001
'90's Suburbs of West and South: Denser in One, Sprawling in Other'
By David Firestone
ATLANTA,
April 16 The rush to the open spaces of suburbia that transformed
the United States for the last 50 years began to slow in the 1990's,
an analysis of the latest census figures shows. While some suburban
outposts established themselves outside the orbit of big metropolitan
areas, many older suburbs neared their physical limits of outward
growth and matured into cities.
The
suburban landscape as it used to be known a collection of treehouse
backyards just outside towns but never far from woods or countryside
became increasingly scarce in the 1990's. The traditional movement
outward from central cities became severely constrained by a variety
of forces, like physical and geographical barriers, oppressive
commuting distances and the air and water pollution caused by
development. In response, as the census analysis and other demography
studies show, suburbs took one of two contrasting regional paths
that population experts say are redefining the nature of suburban
life.
In
the West, where land and resources are simply not available for
growth, former suburbs filled in and reached urban-level densities.
In the South the growth has slowed as well, though not as sharply.
With few natural barriers to growth, many suburbs simply detached
themselves from an old-fashioned central anchor and became, in
effect, suburbs without urbs, free-floating patches of population
density tethered loosely to interstate highways.
"A
great many things were happening in the 1990's," said Bruce Katz,
director of the Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy at the
Brookings Institution in Washington. "The first ring of suburbs
were densifying and becoming more compact. The central cities
started to become stronger. And much of the suburban growth leapfrogged
into the far fringes, spreading out over a much larger landmass."
Demographers
who have studied the phenomenon say the postwar concept of a suburb
as an urban satellite was finally put to rest with the population
shifts of the 90's.
"The
geographical definition of suburb is outdated and has to be changed,"
said Leon Bouvier, a demographer at Old Dominion University in
Norfolk, Va. "It's starting to fill in places we never expected,
a kind of sprawl beyond sprawl as one suburb stretches out to
meet another. There are those who may not like it, but if the
country keeps on growing like it is, the people have to go somewhere."
The
computer analysis of the latest census data, conducted by The
New York Times, examined the population density in each of the
country's 65,443 census tracts, defining urban, suburban and rural
on the basis of how many people lived in a square mile, rather
than the location of the tract. This makes it possible to observe
suburban density levels in areas that are nowhere near a central
city the increasing phenomenon known as sprawl or to detect
a suburb thickening into a city.
But
while sprawl may have dominated the headlines about growth in
recent years, it now turns out to be a concept almost too simple
to describe the population trends now under way.
Over
all, the study showed, the nation's population became 15 percent
more suburban in the 1990's a significant slowdown compared
with a growth of 21 percent in the 1980's. Because the South and
West accounted for more than three-quarters of the country's 11
percent growth in population, the divergent paths of expansion
were most distinct there.
In
the West, the once-relentless growth of suburbs most clearly reached
its limits. Where 3,600 square miles of rural land in the West
became suburban in the 1980's, only 3,140 square miles became
suburban in the 1990's, a 13 percent decline.
In
the South, however, the amount of rural land that became suburban
declined only slightly during the 1990's. In addition, the South's
population became more than 19 percent more suburban, by far the
greatest such increase in the country, even if it fell short of
the 30 percent suburban increase during the 1980's.
"There's
a big difference in how the two ends of the Sun Belt have been
growing," said Robert E. Lang, director of urban and metropolitan
research at the nonprofit Fannie Mae Foundation in Washington.
"If you look at Atlanta and Phoenix from space, you'd see that
Phoenix's development has been largely contiguous and has a high
density boundary around it. It's constrained by aridity and the
slope of the land. But Atlanta, with no such barriers, has been
growing at a much lower density, with development jumping over
big patches of empty land. The Southeastern cities are far less
dense than the West."
Mr.
Lang's own research has shown that 9 of the nation's 10 lowest-
density metropolitan areas are in what he calls the "wet Sun Belt"
of the South: Raleigh, N.C.; Nashville; Charlotte, N.C.; Greensboro,
N.C.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Richmond, Va.; Louisville, Ky.; Oklahoma
City and Memphis. By contrast, 8 of the 10 highest density metro
areas are in the West: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, San
Francisco, Phoenix, Sacramento, Seattle and Portland, Ore.
Suburban
density levels in the South began to appear in areas much farther
from cities than ever before. Bands of suburbs have started to
merge with each other along Southern transportation corridors,
in some cases forming almost unbroken chains of medium-density
areas hundreds of miles long from Atlanta to Raleigh along Interstate
85, or from Washington to Norfolk.
Demographers
say these converging bands of Southern suburbs will soon begin
to rival in area, if not in density, the great metropolitan corridors
of the Northeast and industrial Midwest. But these population
clusters are not centered around great ports or waterways as in
previous eras; instead, they are suburbs of interstate highways.
"These
are fully suburban megalopolises, and we've never seen that before,"
Mr. Lang said. "The Southeast is evolving into this huge countrified
city across a vast space."
The
Northeast and Midwest fall somewhere in between. The rate of suburban
growth fell in the Northeast, while it rose in the Midwest. But
both regions experienced significant population increases in the
cities, compared with the previous decade. Urban growth in the
Northeast was 3.3 percent in the 90's compared with 0.9 percent
in the 80's; in the Midwest the urban population grew by 1 percent,
whereas it actually fell by 3 percent during the 80's.
Over
all, the country's population is now 12 percent more urban than
it was in 1990. Demographers say this is the result of several
trends: not only are suburbs reaching urban density, but families
and immigrants are moving back to central cities. Several major
cities that experienced declines in previous decades Chicago,
Atlanta, Denver, Boston saw growth in the last 10 years. New
York City pushed past eight million people, expanding faster than
its inner suburbs (though the suburbs at the fringes of the metro
area grew even faster than the city).
"I
think you could argue that the cities are beginning to turn it
around, for the first time in a long time," said Kenneth T. Jackson,
author of "Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United
States," and a history professor at Columbia University. "If the
20th century was the suburban century, I think in the 21st we
will start to see a new appeal of urban density."
Professor
Jackson attributed the shift to the decrease in urban crime across
the country, and the preference of young professionals and immigrants
for the close interactions of city life.
Some
of these trends are a direct outgrowth of each region's history,
shaped over the decades by geography and immigration patterns.
Michael Ratcliffe, a geographer at the Census Bureau who works
on urban issues, said the South's unconstrained spread stemmed
from its agrarian past, when its countryside filled up with small
settlements at a much greater rate than in the Midwest or West.
Those little crossroads are now growing out to meet each other,
Mr. Ratcliffe said, while the urban concentrations elsewhere become
more concentrated.
If
the urban renaissance hints at the beginning of a new movement,
one older trend that continued unabated is the rapid development
of once-rural land. More than 17,000 square miles of land that
was rural in 1990 reached suburban or urban densities by 2000,
the analysis found, an amount more than twice the size of New
Jersey.
A
similar amount of land was developed in the 1980's. Fifty acres
of forest are lost every day in the Atlanta area alone, and Calvin
L. Beale, senior demographer with the United States Department
of Agriculture, said about two million acres of farmland are being
developed every year.
More
than half of the rural loss is in the South, and the effect can
easily be seen on a map. Enormous areas that once contained the
region's agrarian hamlets have grown to full suburban densities,
even though they are not really suburbs of any city in the traditional
sense.
In
Habersham County, Ga., for instance, nearly a two-hour drive from
both Atlanta and Greenville, S.C., suburban densities began to
appear for the first time in the 90's in a county that was considered
entirely rural a decade earlier. The county grew by 7,800 people
over the decade to 36,000 people, a 28 percent increase, and many
of those newcomers were Hispanic workers at the county's poultry
plants.
But
Harry Carter, the city manager of Cornelia, the county's largest
city, said many of the new residents had escaped the metro areas
of the I- 85 corridor and had recreated a suburb in his small
town.
"They're
here now, and the Wal- Mart and the Kmart and the four- lane highway
have followed them," Mr. Carter said. "It used to be you couldn't
hear much traffic around here, but now it's a constant hiss. We're
going to have to think about upgrading our old sewage treatment
plant. I hope this doesn't mean we're going to become Charlotte
one day."